I was pulling world supply and demand data the other day and noticed something interesting – the Brazil soybean carryout is growing, but their stocks to use continues to decline. Just take a look at the chart above for the July 2023 estimate of the Brazilian 2023/24 carryout and stocks to use. What you can see is that their carryout (bars, left hand axis) is forecasted to be a record, but their Stocks/Use percent (line, right hand axis) is forecasted to be below 2017 – 2019 levels.
The reason? Larger total supply but much larger exports. You see, from 2010/11 to 2023/24, Brazilian soybean supply increased ~105%, but their export program increased 222% over the same time period.
This change has meant that Brazil is able to carry additional stocks, but still feels the pressure of a tighter stocks to use ratio.